Solar payback period in Lahore explained

The only formula you need

Payback period is total installed cost divided by annual net saving. That is the whole thing. Everything else on this page is about getting those two numbers right, because both are routinely misstated.

Total installed cost means the amount that actually leaves the bank account: panels, inverter, battery if any, structure, wiring, protection, labour, net metering paperwork and the survey. Not the headline figure on a poster.

Annual net saving means the reduction in what LESCO takes from you across twelve months, including the cheap winter months where the system is producing well but the house barely consumes. Averaging only the June bill is the single most common way people fool themselves into a flattering answer.

Why Lahore tariffs make the math work

Payback is short here for one reason. Electricity is expensive. In 2026 a LESCO domestic connection is billed across slabs, and once monthly consumption crosses the protected threshold the effective per unit cost lands somewhere between PKR 48 and PKR 65 after fuel adjustments, taxes and the fixed charges piled on top.

Every unit a rooftop array produces and the house consumes directly is a unit at that full retail value. That is the engine of the whole calculation. A unit exported to LESCO instead is worth far less under current net billing rules, which is why self consumption drives payback more than raw system size. The 2026 net metering changes page covers the export side in detail.

The generation side is straightforward. Across a full Lahore year, including the December and January smog weeks and the July monsoon, a well installed south facing array delivers roughly 3.6 to 4.2 units per day per kW of installed DC capacity, averaged annually. Peak spring days run much higher. Late November through January runs much lower, and winter solar output in Lahore covers exactly how much lower.

Example one: 3kW, no battery, five marla in Iqbal Town

A five marla double storey near Karim Block. Family of four, one 1.5 ton AC used sparingly, fridge, freezer, six fans, lights, a water motor. Average consumption around 450 units a month. Annual LESCO outgo about PKR 240,000.

Line item	Detail	Cost
Panels	6 x 585W Tier-1 at PKR 19,500	PKR 117,000
Inverter	3kW hybrid	PKR 95,000
Mounting	3.51kW standard at PKR 7,000 per kW	PKR 25,000
Electrical kit	Breakers, SPD, earthing, isolators	PKR 35,000
Wiring	DC 90m plus AC 20m	PKR 25,000
Labour	Installation and commissioning	PKR 20,000
Net metering	LESCO documentation and processing	PKR 15,000
Total	Turnkey, no battery	PKR 332,000

Generation averages about 400 units a month. Without storage roughly 70 percent of that is consumed directly, so 280 units offset at an effective PKR 55, worth about PKR 15,400. The remaining 120 units export at a low buyback, adding roughly PKR 1,300. Monthly saving lands near PKR 14,000 once the winter months are averaged in, so PKR 168,000 a year.

Payback: PKR 332,000 divided by PKR 168,000, about 24 months.

This is the fastest paying configuration in Lahore, and it is also the one nobody wants, because it does nothing during a load shedding outage. See solar without net metering and the on grid service page for what this build does and does not do.

Example two: 5kW hybrid with 5kWh battery, ten marla in Johar Town

Ten marla single storey off Khayaban-e-Firdousi. Two inverter ACs running most of the summer, deep freezer, washing machine, two TVs, ten fans. Roughly 900 units a month averaged over the year, with June and July touching 1,400. Annual LESCO outgo about PKR 396,000.

Line item	Detail	Cost
Panels	10 x 585W Tier-1	PKR 195,000
Inverter	5kW hybrid	PKR 165,000
Battery	5kWh lithium	PKR 285,000
Mounting	5.85kW standard	PKR 41,000
Electrical kit and wiring	Kit plus DC and AC runs	PKR 60,000
Labour and net metering	Install plus LESCO file	PKR 35,000
Total	Turnkey with storage	PKR 781,000

The array produces about 650 units a month averaged annually. With storage, self consumption climbs to roughly 92 percent because evening load pulls from the battery instead of the grid. Residual bill settles around PKR 6,000 a month. Annual saving works out near PKR 324,000.

Payback: PKR 781,000 divided by PKR 324,000, about 29 months.

Five months longer than the no battery case, in exchange for a house that stays lit through outages. Most Johar Town buyers take that trade without hesitating. Related reading: 5kW system pricing and batteries for load shedding.

Example three: 10kW hybrid with 10kWh storage, one kanal in DHA

A one kanal house in DHA Phase 6. Four ACs, two fridges, a chest freezer, a swimming pool pump running through summer, heavy lighting load. About 2,200 units a month in summer, 1,100 in winter. Annual LESCO outgo around PKR 744,000. Raised mounting was needed to clear the overhead water tank and stair block.

Line item	Detail	Cost
Panels	18 x 585W Tier-1	PKR 351,000
Inverter	10kW hybrid	PKR 295,000
Battery	2 x 5kWh lithium	PKR 570,000
Mounting	10.53kW raised frame at PKR 12,000 per kW	PKR 126,000
Electrical kit and wiring	Larger kit, longer runs	PKR 70,000
Labour and net metering	Install plus LESCO file	PKR 45,000
Total	Turnkey with storage	PKR 1,457,000

Around 1,150 units a month generated. Residual bill about PKR 18,000 a month because the pool pump and night AC load exceed what 10kWh of storage can carry. Annual saving near PKR 528,000.

Payback: PKR 1,457,000 divided by PKR 528,000, about 33 months.

Bigger systems do not pay back faster. They pay back a bit slower, because the incremental units they generate increasingly land outside the household's consumption window and get exported at low value. More detail in 10kW hybrid pricing.

What shortens payback

• A high bill. Every rupee per unit above PKR 50 compresses break even directly.
• Daytime consumption. Households where someone is home, or where laundry, ironing and pool pumps run between 10am and 3pm, convert far more generation into full value savings.
• Correct azimuth and tilt. A south facing array at 25 to 30 degrees beats an east facing one by a meaningful margin over a year.
• Keeping panels clean. Lahore dust plus December smog can cost 15 to 25 percent of output on a neglected array. Quarterly cleaning is cheap insurance, see cleaning costs and the cleaning service.
• Buying once, correctly. Two site visits, two structures and two commissioning fees is money burned.

What stretches it

1. A protected slab bill. Households under 200 units a month save far less per unit and can take five years or more.
2. Shading. A neighbour's parapet, a mobile tower, or a mature tree on the south side. Shade on a single panel drags an entire string. This is the most underestimated factor on narrow Lahore plots where houses sit wall to wall.
3. Oversizing. Building a 15kW array on a 900 unit household means the surplus exports at low buyback rates for twenty years.
4. Battery replacement. Lithium packs are good for a long time but not forever, and a tubular bank at PKR 48,000 to 52,000 per 200Ah unit typically needs replacing within four to five years, which resets part of the clock. See lithium versus tubular.
5. Cheap equipment. An inverter failure in year two, out of warranty, costs both the repair and the lost generation. Repair costs are real and the repair service page lists what commonly fails.
6. Financing. Interest or rental payments add to total cost and push break even out by months or years depending on tenure.

The caveat that matters most

Every payback figure on this page assumes electricity stays expensive. If tariffs fall substantially, savings shrink and payback lengthens proportionally. Nobody in Pakistan can honestly promise where tariffs go over the next five years, and any installer quoting a payback to the nearest month is guessing with a false precision.

What can be said with more confidence is that a payback under three years leaves enormous margin. Panels carry performance warranties running twenty five years and typically lose about half a percent of output annually. Even if savings halved, a 29 month payback becomes 58 months, which is still comfortable against a twenty five year asset life. That margin, not the headline number, is the real case for solar in Lahore.

Getting your own number right

Pull the last twelve LESCO bills, not two. Note the units consumed each month rather than the rupee total, since the rupee figure moves with fuel adjustments. Then work out how much of that consumption happens in daylight. That last number decides whether a battery is worth its cost in your case.

The calculator handles the first pass. For a build specific figure a site survey is needed, because shading and roof area change what can actually be installed. The survey costs PKR 3,000 in Lahore and that amount is deducted from the final installation bill.

Further reading: how to calculate solar ROI for the longer horizon view, what a LESCO bill looks like after solar, and area guides for Gulberg, Model Town and Bahria Town.